The Prediction Trap

tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-79517463572782827492012-01-26T09:50:05.237-05:00The Prediction TrapBased on the book by the same name, and written by author and speaker Randy Park, this blog looks at the challenges we face as we prepare for the future.Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.comBlogger181100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-67595527921631418502012-01-26T09:27:00.002-05:002012-01-26T09:50:05.249-05:00Founder of Davos has interesting comments on capitalism

In what to me is a surprisingly under-reported story, Klaus Schwab (the founder of the annual World Economic Forum conference at Davos) says that capitalism is out of whack.This comes from a man who embraces free markets and who for 41 years has been bringing world CEOs and political leaders together for elite brainstorming sessions.Excerpts from the stories referenced at the bottom:"I'm a deep

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-35581046051466262522012-01-10T23:20:00.001-05:002012-01-10T23:20:47.613-05:00My prediction for 2012

You likely know from my book "The Prediction Trap - and how to avoid it" or by hearing me speak that I think predicting the future is a dangerous idea. That's because once a person or organization has made a prediction, it is natural for them to look for information that supports that prediction and filter out information that contradicts the prediction.Nevertheless, there is a prediction which I

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-45073944388959537912011-11-03T10:13:00.003-04:002011-11-03T10:25:35.078-04:00Lessons from Greece on decisions

I think there are three key decision-making lessons from the current economic situation in Greece:1. No one can avoid reality - the Greek financial situation2. Things may not always be as they seem - the Greek Prime Minister's decision3. Sometimes in order to get a message through someone's filter, you have to shock themTo elaborate:1. No one can avoid realityThis one is most obvious. When it

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-82993294352377100092011-10-12T14:36:00.000-04:002011-10-12T14:43:19.091-04:00A decision making process?

Over the years, I have had clients ask for "a decision making process." My response used to be "there is no such thing; if there was a universal decision making process, we could program a computer to make decisions and we wouldn't need people" (which in some cases might be a good thing.)But what I have come to realize is that the tools and approaches I provide in my presentations and books can

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-14868305926986305252011-06-13T23:40:00.001-04:002011-06-13T23:40:56.245-04:00We're moving, and other news

Blogger, First things first: we're moving. Our new contact information is Decision Advancement14 Shand AvenueToronto, Ontario, CanadaM8X 1T5 website: www.DecisionAdvancement.com My phone and e-mail are:phone: (416) 567-9540e-mail: rp@randypark.com If you haven't received an e-mail from me in a while, the name "Decision Advancement" may be new to you as well. When I started this endeavor, I

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-88965756127724223252011-04-28T18:12:00.001-04:002011-04-28T18:18:00.377-04:00Optimism and Pessimism about the future

Last week, I had two experiences which caused me to view the future more optimistically. The first was that I attended an event on systems dynamics and systems thinking hosted by Earl Haig high school here in Toronto.The half-dozen students who organized this event have formed a system dynamics club at the high school, and held this event, complete with guest speakers, to educate their peers

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-32869051743947428862010-12-17T16:27:00.003-05:002010-12-17T16:37:40.385-05:00Turning Embarrassment into Inspiration

I had a slightly embarrassing moment two Sundays ago. As part of my new role on the board of the Canadian Association of Professional Speakers I made a short presentation describing factors that affect the success of an association. It was based on a model I created that demonstrates that many factors are linked to member satisfaction. (If you would like more information on how the model helps

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-77590597517757025882010-11-24T23:36:00.004-05:002010-11-24T23:41:37.688-05:00You Can Do It!

I had an interesting insight this past weekend. I was down in Arizona at an event for professional speakers as I will be a board member of the Canadian Association of Professional Speakers next year. This weekend workshop was hosted by the American equivalent of our Canadian association.Brian Tracy, the creator of the Chicken Soup for the Soul series of books and an accomplished speaker, is on

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-71726202960969298732010-10-13T14:07:00.002-04:002010-10-13T14:11:54.833-04:00Blame it on the System

A sad event occurred for me on Monday - the candidate I was supporting and volunteering for in the Toronto mayor's race pulled out. Sarah Thomson had been running third or fourth in most polls but didn't have the resources to continue. In particular she didn't have the money to advertise to get her message out to the voters and since she was in third or fourth place, the press didn't pay as much

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-3152187435424408722010-04-27T16:34:00.002-04:002010-05-20T18:41:35.720-04:00Volcano Lessons: Preparing for Future Events

The IssueIf you've heard me speak at a conference or another event recently, you likely heard me say that in many important areas no one can predict the future. So if you don't know what will happen, how can you prepare for it? The solution to this dilemma is that you don't have to predict future events in order to prepare for them. We have a recent example with the Eyjafjallajokull volcano.

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-29718013998460237182010-02-08T11:43:00.003-05:002010-02-08T12:06:13.844-05:00Avoiding Bad Decision Making

Avoiding Bad Decision MakingBy Randy Park, Foresight FacilitatorAs 2010 is unfolding, whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about this year, here aresome questions to consider:What does bad decision making look like in your organization?Here is a practical definition: a bad decision is a decision made by an individual or agroup in your organization that could have been avoided, and that

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-72964438985670244302009-12-30T17:19:00.001-05:002009-12-30T17:19:02.782-05:00

Randy Park will appear on Global TV in Toronto talking about New Year's Resolutions.

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-88754353073566442002009-10-05T18:28:00.001-04:002009-10-05T18:28:02.563-04:00The Market Momentum Myth

It's a mistake to ascribe property of physics to human behaviourWith last week's drop of stock markets, has the market momentum "stalled?" Randy Park, author of “The Prediction Trap - and how to avoid it” (and a physicist) says that question is silly."Markets, or political fortunes, or other human behaviours don't have momentum - they don't have physical characteristics," says Park. "Where

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-61592120988483905652009-06-29T17:24:00.001-04:002009-06-29T17:24:19.699-04:00Where is the world economy headed?

Where is the world economy headed? This is the first post of a series designed to investigate (not try to answer- see The Prediction Trap at http://www.thinkingforresults.com/thepredictiontrap.htm) this question. We are frequently hearing phrases like "recovery", "back to normal", "green shoots" but will the world economy recover in a way similar to past recoveries? Many people are hoping this

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-88613563526345580312009-06-23T09:37:00.001-04:002009-06-23T09:37:00.717-04:00Obama's speech is still worth a listen...

It has been a couple of weeks since President Obama's speech in Egypt, but if you didn't read or better yet listen to the speech, it is still worth having a look:http://ping.fm/HuwG7There are several reasons why I think examining what he did in this speech can be instructive.First, his speech was designed to connect with his audience by understanding where they were coming from, and meeting them

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-90898956973318173302009-01-24T15:31:00.002-05:002009-01-24T15:36:39.458-05:00The Prime Minister's choices

I recently appeared on Business News Network, discussing the strategic choices facing Stephen Harper as he prepares the upcoming budget. Here is some of the background thinking:Why Stephen Harper may not cooperateTactically, it is not in his best interestWe will likely never know whether Stephen Harper failed to anticipate the formation of the opposition coalition in December, or whether he

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-76580150733880399622008-10-05T10:01:00.002-04:002008-11-22T00:11:50.147-05:00How Political Parties Capitalize on the Way People Think

For many Canadians, elections are a boring sideshow to their regular lives, or a duty to be endured. But people are likely paying much more attention to the political messages than they think.Political campaigns are carefully planned and scripted, using time-tested approaches to winning. Many of these approaches prey on the weaknesses of the human decision making process, the thinking traps that

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7951746357278282749.post-64997175314880298182008-10-03T18:27:00.000-04:002008-10-03T18:32:27.329-04:00Praise for The Prediction Trap

I was thrilled to receive some excellent reviews on my second book, The Prediction Trap. Here are some samples:“The Parrot Principle discussed in The Prediction Trap is especially demonic in the world of economics, and as an economist, I can attest that it’s an easy trap to fall into. We economists talk so freely about all kinds of things, and if they are said often enough they can become ‘

Randy Park, Decision Advancementhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14665503080837061072noreply@blogger.com0